Dollar rate forecast for 2016 budget questionable
The 2016 budget includes an average dollar rate of 18,600 rubles. On December 3, this was accidentally said in the Parliament by the First Deputy Chairman of the National Bank Taras Nadolny.
"We planned the budget, and the projected average exchange rate figures were about 18,600 per dollar," said the expert of the National Bank. At the same time, the real exchange rate of the US currency at the Belarus stock exchange is 18,085 Belarusian rubles.
"Based on the budget forecast, the average exchange rate figures were about 18, 600 dollars." On December 3, 2015, the dollar in the National Bank was 18,085 rubles.
Taras Nadolny was immediately ridiculed on the Internet and in the kitchens. But the senior analyst of "Alpari", financial expert Vadzim Iosub explained in the comment to Euroradio why we should not laugh at the 18,600 rate.
"The rate of 18,600 is in no way a regulatory measure that is necessary to achieve. In general, why include into the budget the dollar rate? The budget is fully calculated only using the Belarusian rubles. But it is clear that there are some figures related to the import, export, with payments on foreign loans. All this is linked to the foreign currency exchange rate," said Iosub.
If you review the average dollar exchange rate forecasts in the draft budgets for the previous years, you immediately see the optionality of figures. In 2012: the draft budget for 2013 included the rate of 8,950 rubles per dollar, the real one was 8,875. In 2014: 9,500 was forecast, the realily was - 10,215. In 2015: forecast was 11,400, the real one(January-November) - 15,661.
Vadzim Iosub explained that the authors of the budget could not have predicted the more or less real average exchange rate for the next year. The draft budget is formed, when it is simply impossible to do:
"The budget, as I understand it, is started to be developed in the late spring and early summer. It is clear that in this period, in fact - in the first half of the year - it is rather difficult to provide a more or less adequate forecast of the average dollar rate for the next year, especially in our conditions. At the same time, the beginning of summer is precidely the time, when the error rate forecast is not fatal and will not complicate our lives."
So, 18,600 does not have to be treated seriously. Another thing is the outlook for inflation. As life shows, its real level is also very different from the forecast by the Belarusian authorities.
