Expert: Hardly anything will change after EAEU agreement
But for Kazakhstan, Belarusians could wake up as citizens of a different state on May 30.
“The text was discussed until the last moment. If you did pay attention, Belarus’ official statements sounded did not make it clear whether Lukashenka was going to sign the agreement or not,” political scientist Yury Shautsou thinks.
The restricted access to the text of the agreement was also caused by the fact, he thinks. At the same time Kazakhstani mass media reported that the text consisted of 2000 pages. However, the final text consisted of only 700 pages. Moreover, Russia is rumoured to have removed the paragraphs about the common frontier security policy and citizenship under Kazakhstan’s pressure. It would have been a surprise to wake up after Lukashenka’s visit to Kazakhstan and find out that it was necessary to change passports.
However, this is not going to happen. Moreover, Yury Shautsou thinks that ordinary Belarusians will not even feel the effect of ‘the historic agreement. But the fear of a new crisis may decrease.
“Hardly anything will change for average Belarusians. The threat of a financial crisis will disappear. We need to increase our international reserves to be able to pay our foreign debts. The problem will be partially solved. That is why people will become less anxious.”
The agreement will let Belarus save $1.5 billion next year, deputy Minister of Finance Dzmitry Kiyko told journalists. It will become possible because of the reconsideration of oil customs duties – Belarus has to pay from 3.5 to 5 billion dollars a year to Russia now. In theory, judging by the statements about ‘free trade’, Belarus will not have to pay any of the customs duties to Russia after Lukashenka signs the EAEU agreement. However, the Kremlin is very stubborn as regards this issue. That is why the Belarusian President sounded a bit offended even at the festive ceremony in Astana:
“I cannot say that there is no dissatisfaction at all. We can still improve the agreements and make them beneficial for all the signees. Being an honest and reliable partner, Belarus cannot do anything else. We will definitely discuss with the Kazakhstani and Russian Presidents.”
That is why it is too early to say that a new economic union has been created in the world. Moreover, the joint GDP of the new union will only total 2.5% of the world GPD, experts say.
