Expert: No sense in Putin-Poroshenko meeting
It will be possible to negotiate with Russia only when it understands that nothing can be done with the help of the war and stops supporting separatists, political scientists think.
The idea of organizing a meeting for Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko in order to settle the conflict in Ukraine is being considered by Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka and President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso at the same time. The former has suggested inviting Poroshenko to a meeting of the Customs Union leaders and the latter – organizing a trilateral meeting for Ukraine, Russia and the EU. Both Presidents think that the negotiations should be organized at the end of August.
Interestingly, the meeting of Putin and Poroshenko is going to be organized when the conflict in Donets Basin is being escalated. Although Kiev claimed that it was ready for any negotiations, experts do not believe that such a meeting may be organized in Minsk.
Kiev PhD Petro Aleshchuk believes that the possibility of meeting in Minsk is fifty-fifty. However, he does not think that it may make any sense.
Petro Aleshchuk: “There is no sense in such a meeting at the moment. We are witnessing Russia’s controversial actions and statements now. For instance, Putin said that he was doing everything possible to help deescalate the conflict in Ukraine a few days ago. Then the leaders of Donets Basin militants said that they were receiving reinforcement – militants who had trained in Russia for four months.”
Why negotiate if there is no trust, Euroradio’s interlocutor wonders.
There is nothing to talk about with Russia and it will be impossible reach any agreement, director of the political analysis centre Stratagem Yuri Romanenko thinks.
Yuri Romanenko: “The meeting with the heads of the Customs Union is not a top priority now. Russia is our enemy and it denotes the policy of the Customs Union. Our relations with Belarus are important but Belarus does not affect Russia’s foreign policy. Furthermore, it is not clear what Russia can offer at the negotiations as it is not going to change anything and its position is rather dumb: ‘I want it my way!’ That is why I do not understand why we should meet the Customs Union leaders.”
Yuri Romanenko
Yury Romanenko mentioned the meeting of the Russian and Ukrainian Ministers of Foreign Affairs in Berlin last Sunday. It yielded no practical result, he told Euroradio. Thus, the conflict in Donets Basin is not going to be solved if the two Presidents meet either.
“Russia is unlikely to negotiate until it understands that the war will not help it in any way. It will keep saying the same things and aggravating the situation until then,” Petro Aleshchuk added.
Petro Aleshchuk
Belarusian analyst Valery Karbalevich agrees with his Ukrainian colleagues. It will be possible to conduct negotiations only if Russia refuses to support separatists in East Ukraine, he said. However, it does not seem to be ready for it now. That is why only economic issues may be discussed at the meeting: what economic problems may appear in Ukraine and in the Customs Union member states if Kiev signs an association agreement with the EU.
Valery Karbalevich: “Lukashenka has described the problem as the subject of negotiations. Ukraine should assure Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan that it would not reexport European goods to the markets of the Customs Union member states, he said. However, it is not clear whether the question is enough to organize such a meeting in Minsk.”
Valery Karbalevich
Thus, the meeting of Putin and Poroshenko initiated by Lukashenka is possible, but the experts interviewed by Euroradio think that it will not make any sense.
Photo: Yuri Romanenko and Petro Aleshchuk’s archives, www.trud.ru, obozrevatel.com
