Chaly: National Bank to control demand and supply of foreign currency
According to the National Bank, the foreign currency exchange rate will be decreasing gradually at the additional session.
The senior deputy head of the National Bank, Mikalai Luzhin, has claimed it. According to him, the Belarusian rouble exchange rate will stabilize and the single exchange rate will be established. Euroradio has asked economist Syarhei Chaly to comment on it.
The senior deputy head of the National Bank, Mikalai Luzhin, has claimed it. According to him, the Belarusian rouble exchange rate will stabilize and the single exchange rate will be established. Euroradio has asked economist Syarhei Chaly to comment on it.
Euroradio: Will the commercial and the National Bank’s exchange rates become closer? What should we expect?
Syarhei Chaly: This statement can be interpreted in two different ways. The most likely variant is that the National Bank hopes that the exchange rates will become closer. If the sales are organised, the market will no longer need speculation and machinations. It means that the exchange rate may be lower.
However, I do not subscribe to this point of view. I am sure that the market exchange rate could be lower than the black market interbank exchange rate. But the additional session will not make it lower only because the confiscation of 30% of foreign currency receipts remains obligatory. And the exchange rate of the confiscation is twice lower than the market exchange rate. That is why I think that it may result in disappointment.
The second idea is based on the fact that it may be a threat rather than a promise. The interbank session may be created to control the exchange rate in some way. And to make it lower. These are the two variants.
Euroradio: Better to say, the commercial exchange rate will be punished if it is too high, right?
Syarhei Chaly: This is not the first attempt to organize an additional session. In both cases we can witness the situation when the authorities and the National Bank think that the market exchange rate is not real. They keep trying to find out where it can be defined.
Why didn’t the second session take place in April? It was because the interbank exchange rate was higher than the authorities had expected. The government expected 3800-4100 and it was about 5000.
The same is happening now. The statement about the inadmissibility of the current exchange rate means that it should be made acceptable. It is not clear why the interbank stock exchange should be closed. The statement indicates that the exchange rate will probably be defined by the demand and supply. However, the National Bank will not control the exchange rate anymore. It will control the demand and supply at the second session.
