National Bank: Devaluation is just one option

Our economy needs devaluation. Even the state experts from the "Economic Bulletin" published by the Ministry of Economy admit that . Devaluation is mentioned at the background of "a number of trends that violate the macroeconomic balance."

Quote: " Delay of devaluation of the national currency against inflation and the strengthening of the Belarusian rouble give a negative impact on the price competitiveness of Belarusian products."

 

The author of the article - Victar Pinihin - is a Ph.D. in economics and works as a deputy director of the Economic Research Institute of  the Ministry of Economy. So, this is more than a formal opinion. However, will it reach the National Bank that is "responsible" for the dollar's rate ?
 

A spokesman for the National Bank Alyaksandr Tsimashenka says he knows about Pinihin’s article in a conversation with Euroradio. Still, he stresses that the scientist expressed only one of a number of expert opinions.
 

"Scientists are scientists because they express different views. yes, this vision may be put into the basis of the official position, but maybe not. On the whole, the National Bank works with the government regarding all the basic issues of the monetary policy realization."

In his article, Victar Pinihin writes not about a sharp, but a gradual devaluation. Economist Leanid Zlotnikau believes that speed does not have a significant meaning here. However, there is a psychological moment:

 

"Of course , there is always a human reaction to sudden changes . Our government knows this psychological law . Therefore, we do not increase the price for vodka at once, we do it gradually. Or the price for milk . The same is with the devaluation."
 

Alongside with that, Zlotnikau says devaluation alone cannot solve the problem - it can only help. And maybe it won’t,  if the real sector turns unable to use it.
 

After the New Year's devaluation in 2009 the Belarusian rouble pegged to a basket of currencies. This binding persists today, but it cannot prevent the "drop" of the rouble . In 2009-2011, the National Bank set  limits : first, the rouble must keep within 5% of the value of the basket , then - + -10% , and before the May 2011 devaluation - even + -12 %.
 

But after passing to the floating exchange rate in September and October 2011, these limits were gone, and the further devaluation simply define a new value of the basket of currencies, says analyst of the official partner of "Alpari" in Minsk Vadzim Iosub .
 

Economist Yaraslau Ramanchuk shares this opinion:

"They can bind, unbind, set other limits. If they re-write the budget five times a year, binding to the currency busket doesn't have any influence at all."

Besides, the rouble has become "weaker" against the basket of currencies by 1,95% since the beginning of the year.

Meanwhile, the dollar broke through a psychological barrier of Br 9 thousand on Tuesday, and continued to grow on Wednesday. Has the gradual devaluation, mentioned by Victar Pinihin, already started?

Photo: www.svaboda.org.