Can Lukashenka fit into negotiations on Ukraine? Expert explains

Lukashenka is increasingly voicing the thesis that Belarus must participate in the negotiations on Ukraine. However, the autocrat's wishes are heard only in Belarus and the Kremlin.

Historian and political observer Aliaksandr Frydman discussed the issue on Euroradio.

"This discourse about negotiations [with Lukashenka's obligatory participation] <...> is indeed present. [But today no one can say what these negotiations will look like. Whether [they] will take place at all, whether there will be a demand for them."

At the same time, there is a lot of talk about the talks in the West, but not in Russia.

"The discourse there is exactly the opposite. There is a discourse that we have to win, and we don't need negotiations, because these Westerners will cheat us anyway."

Frydman considers Lukashenka's musings about Belarus's loss of territory to be nonsense.

"They [the reflections] are inappropriate, of course, but we've already gotten used to them. Lukashenka raised this issue in 2020, about Western Belarus, which Poland wants to get. Well, apparently, now it was more about Ukraine wanting to get some territories of Belarus, he repeats it. <...> One day you really start to believe what you say, the most unbelievable things. And it seems to me that Lukashenka is beginning to believe it, too. And this issue that is coming up, he likes it, it is important for him.

Today Lukashenka works according to the well-known principle: if it hurts, he talks about it.

"And it is interesting that there was also an appeal to Putin, and it looks like Putin is unable to protect Belarusian interests. After all, if Lukashenka is not allowed - well, yes, everything is lost. Putin, despite the fact that he is the best friend, apparently will not protect the interests of Belarus. <...> We know from the history of the XX century that the fate of small states is decided by big powers. This is an extremely negative moment for a number of Eastern and Central European countries, a psychological trauma. The same Molotov-Ribbentrop pact with a secret protocol and others. And now to Ukraine. It is known that in 2022 Putin did not want to solve the Ukrainian problem with the Ukrainians. He wanted to solve it with the United States, with the Europeans. So this is the idea that we will agree here with the really big players on everything important, and you will fulfill it.

Even if the talks take place, Belarus will not be there because it is opposed by Western countries and Ukraine.

"There is more of a Western problem here. It's the West that doesn't want to see Lukashenka, doesn't consider him a subject. And even if the Ukrainian side is talking, discussing these talks about inviting Russia <...> [Belarus] is not there at all."