Chaly: “Crisis-2013" will come soon but it will be mild and fluent
Will people queue near currency exchange offices, will the economy fall? Independent analyst Syarhei Chaly has commented on it for Euroradio.
Talks about 500-dollar wages make people doubt the stabilization
Euroradio: Every time officials mention the average wage of 500 dollars in the whole country and 700 dollars in Minsk, my instinct tells me to run to the nearest currency exchange office. How does the economy react to such news?
Syarhei Chaly: The majority of people were cautious in the first half of 2012. It was difficult to believe that the stabilization reached by the authorities was real. And now they have started talking about 500 dollars again. How does it sound when officials start talking about it? No matter what is going on in the economy, we still want the average wage to be 500 dollars.
“Crisis-2013" will come soon but it will be mild and fluent
Euroradio: Let me repeat my question: will there be a crisis in 2013 and what it will be like? People will receive 500-dollar wages in December in roubles. What will their reaction be?
Syarhei Chaly: There will be no crisis like the one we witnessed last year. The economic situation has changed. We used to increase wages in roubles and the fixed exchange rate produced a feeling that life was getting better. A critical adjustment followed in the form of devaluation.
Now the flexible exchange rate will make the adjustment fluent.
While the authorities keep announcing their duties in dollars, the situation will not change
Euroradio: Do you mean that people will not feel any improvement of their well-being?
Syarhei Chaly: It seems to me that people have not understood it yet. The possibility of creating an illusion of well-being disappeared together with the fixed exchange rate. The flexible exchange rate will react to the increase of wages immediately.
Euroradio: How are the authorities going to avoid this trap?
Syarhei Chaly: While the authorities keep announcing their duties in dollars, the situation will not change. You cannot take offence at people who convert their wages into dollars and plan their expenses in dollars in this situation.
Photo by : ultra-music.com.
