Lukashenka’s rating dropped by 5% in three months

According to the latest sociological surveys, the President’s rating has gone down from 48% to 43.6%. One of the reasons for it was the “Godfather” series shown on TV. 10% of the pollees noted that their attitude to the protagonist of the series had worsened after the film.

A sociologist Aleh Manayeu has commented on the results of the independent survey for ERB:

“A comparative analysis of the surveys conducted in September and in June demonstrates that the President’s rating has decreased a bit – by about 5%. The ratings of his opponents, namely opposition representatives (the eight people collecting signatures now), have increased”.

“You can write “the President’s rating is going down while Nyaklyayeu’s rating has increased by three times” – and it will be true but it will also be a lie without an explanation”, - continues Aleh Manayeu. Numbers are important:

“The decrease means that the President’s rating was a bit more than 48% and has become 43.6%. Who is our most outstanding opposition member? For example, Nyaklyayeu. His rating was 1.6% and it has become 5.1%”.

How can such slight changes affect the elections and their results? Aleh Manayeu thinks that if the tendency is preserved, the acting President will win the elections in the first voting without any rigging. It does not matter that the rating of 43% is less than 50+1:

“43.6% out of 100%. Not a single country has a 100% turn-out. It depends on the number of people who will come. If two thirds come to vote, that is about 65%, the number will turn into 67% and if three quarters come (75%) than it will turn into 58%. Thus, we can expect 58% in the first voting even today”.
Despite of Lukashenka’s decreasing rating, “the united” electorate of the eight opposition politics who have registered their initiative groups lags behind the electorate of their main opponent. The number of the opposition electorate has not changed; it is still about 30% or two million electors.

Aleh Manayeu: : “If you combine all the people who are ready to vote for this or that opposition candidate in Belarus you will get about 27%”.

It is essential that democratic leaders should consolidate their efforts in such a situation, thinks Aleh Manayeu. Even despite the fact that the maximum number of votes the single opposition candidate can get is 25%:

“If they manage to consolidate their efforts, the single candidate, like Milinkevich in 2006, could get up to 25% of votes. However, the situation is hypothetical because all attempts to unite have brought no result”.

Why is it necessary to get the maximum opposition electorate of 25%?

Aleh Manayeu: “If an alternative candidate manages to get 25% of votes... it will be about 1.5 million votes… Looking at the life after the elections we will see that a person having such a mandate of trust will get a weighty argument. The person will immediately attract the attention of the East, West and of the Belarusian people”.