New President to face financial crisis in 2013?

he sum needed to pay Belarus’ foreign debt has been calculated for the first time. Most of it will have to be paid in 2013-2014, writes an economist Syarhei Chaly in his blog. In his opinion, Belarusians will feel this change.
Chaly: “There will be one billion of the debt in 2012 and 2.2 billions in 2013… It will be rather noticeable because our GDP is about 40 billions and 50% of it is for the budget. It turns out that the debt that will have to be paid will total 10% of the budget. The sum is rather big”.







The economist has urged the authorities to start doing something about the problem now. The results of the pre-election campaign will affect the economy and a new anti-crisis programme will be needed, says the expert:

Chaly: “I am starting to think what will happen after the elections. What will have to be done about the economy? The main problem is structural; it concerns the structure of paying the debts and means there will be a sudden change by 2013-2014. It will be necessary to pay the Russian debt and the credit of the IMF… It will either be necessary to do something about the economy to make it work by that time or to look for mechanisms of financing the debt – to borrow again in order to pay the debt”.

According to different calculations, Belarus’ foreign debt totals from 20 to 25 billion dollars. An economist Leanid Zaika has told in an interview with ERB: 

“The debt is rather huge. The Belarusian government has never had a similar problem with paying its debts. Naturally, psychological and financial problems may appear when it is time to pay back. Every family will owe at least 1600 or 1800 dollars.

Belarus will successfully enter the state of flatter in 2012 – a kind of vibration of an airplane flying at a very high speed when its wings, engine and tail start falling off… the problem is the government has never practiced debt liabilities so it will be a discovery for Belarusians. If you look at it closer – it turns out we will really have to pay 2 billions a year. People will rejoice at the thought of how good they used to live before”.

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