New President to face financial crisis in 2013?
This will be the time to pay the majority of debts. It will be necessary to pay back to the International Monetary Fund and Russia. (table)
he sum needed to pay Belarus’ foreign debt has been calculated for the
first time. Most of it will have to be paid in 2013-2014, writes an
economist Syarhei Chaly in his blog. In his opinion, Belarusians will
feel this change.
Chaly: “There will be one billion of the debt in
2012 and 2.2 billions in 2013… It will be rather noticeable because our
GDP is about 40 billions and 50% of it is for the budget. It turns out
that the debt that will have to be paid will total 10% of the budget.
The sum is rather big”.
The economist has urged the authorities to start doing something about
the problem now. The results of the pre-election campaign will affect
the economy and a new anti-crisis programme will be needed, says the
expert:
Chaly: “I am starting to think what will happen after
the elections. What will have to be done about the economy? The main
problem is structural; it concerns the structure of paying the debts and
means there will be a sudden change by 2013-2014. It will be necessary
to pay the Russian debt and the credit of the IMF… It will either be
necessary to do something about the economy to make it work by that time
or to look for mechanisms of financing the debt – to borrow again in
order to pay the debt”.
According to different calculations,
Belarus’ foreign debt totals from 20 to 25 billion dollars. An economist
Leanid Zaika has told in an interview with ERB:
“The debt is
rather huge. The Belarusian government has never had a similar problem
with paying its debts. Naturally, psychological and financial problems
may appear when it is time to pay back. Every family will owe at least
1600 or 1800 dollars.
Belarus will successfully enter the state
of flatter in 2012 – a kind of vibration of an airplane flying at a very
high speed when its wings, engine and tail start falling off… the
problem is the government has never practiced debt liabilities so it
will be a discovery for Belarusians. If you look at it closer – it turns
out we will really have to pay 2 billions a year. People will rejoice
at the thought of how good they used to live before”.
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