Experts: Russian rouble's downfall may make Belarusian rouble fall as well
Belarusian economists watch the prices for oil with alert while their Russian colleagues are confident in the actions of their Central Bank.
The middle of last week was very sad for the Russian economy. The prices for oil started going down rapidly. The oil is less than 100 USD per barrel now, for the first time in several years. The Russian rouble started getting cheaper as a follow-up. Economist Syarhei Chaly thinks that this may become a problem for Belarus as well.
"It's not very good for us. Our main export, if we don't count raw materials, is Russia. Naturally, it will decrease. In conversion to the currency equivalent. Potentially, the change of balance at the currency exchange stock may cause weakening of our rouble as well".
There are positive sides, too. Chaly thinks that oil products - petrol and diesel fuel - are getting cheaper not as fast as oil. Correspondingly, we can make good earnings on the export in the nearest months.
Another economist, Leanid Zlotnikau, also predicts problems. Especially for such giants as MAZ, MTZ and BelAZ.
"Import will become more expensive for them in the foreign trade. This will also affect the Belarusian economy in the negative way, especially this concerns mechanic engineering. However, not only this", - the expert explains.
Zlotnikau predicts problems in the agriculture, too - Belarusian milk and meat will become more expensive for the Russians.
He also adds that it will be difficult to foresee the situation at the Belarusian currency market. The situation is unstable and dangerous. Panic of the population may appear every second, and the last year's queues near the currency exchange offices may repeat.
Meanwhile, Russian expert Mikita Maslenikau is convinced that the Central Bank will cope with this situation.
"I think that our Russian Central Bank will come back to the market with interventions in the middle of the week. In the end of last week, it mildly tested the players' reaction, having spent 280 million dollars on that, according to my calculations".
Maslenikau adds that the rises and falls of the Russian rouble have been so minor so far that it is too early to speak about their serious influence on the Russian-Belarusian trade. The rate stabilization will happen already in several months and the Russian currency will get back to the level of 31 roubles per 1 dollar, the economist thinks.
Meanwhile, the Belarusians have already headed for the banks to withdraw their rouble deposits. The growth of the dollar's rate, which is happening due to low prices for oil, caused these precautions.
