US think tank forecasts disruptions of gas flows across Belarus
According to report of the company, Ukraine and Belarus, which are vital transit states for oil and gas flows to Europe, are currently contributing to tensions in gas relations that can suspend Russian oil supplies to one or both, Trend Capital reports.
According to ESAI, current
strife in relations runs much deeper.
Tension between Russian and
Belarus increased after Alyaksandr Lukashenka had said that disputable
issues often occur in relations between both countries. For the first time in
three years, the Belarusian ruler met with heads of all foreign diplomatic
missions in Belarus to inform them about new foreign political priorities of
the country. “Tensions have mounted since then, and the dispute has spread to
multiple political and economic issues, including energy,” the ESAI report
says.
The US Company does not rule
out the possibility of a rupture in relations with Russia that could lead to
the disruption of oil and gas flows to Europe.
There is a precedent for the
disruption of oil flows, the report says. In January 2007, Belarus slapped a
tariff on oil transit, which caused Russia to briefly cut oil flows.
Usually Belarus and Russia
resolve their differences and remind the world of their special relations. The
current bout of tensions between Belarus and Russia, with the former warming to
Europe, may portend an unprecedented rupture, he ESAI report runs.
Regarding Ukraine, ESAI said
that Ukraine's failure to pay for gas reduces its chances to tackle the crisis.
At present, Gazprom demands full payment for gas one week after the end of each
month.
“Ukraine is under pressure
to increase domestic gas prices, which would help pay for
Russian gas deliveries and
is a condition for Ukraine to borrow money to finance gas purchases. Raising
gas prices in the midst of a recession and in an election year will not be
easy. It is unlikely Ukraine’s leaders can skilfully steer clear of the
crisis,” the report said.
