How will U.S. budget crisis affect dollar's rate in Belarus?
The dollar is getting cheaper all around the world after the US government shutdown. But not in Belarus and here is why.
The United States experience the budget crisis the likes of which has not happened since the mid -1990s. Financing of the federal agencies of the country stopped at midnight on Tuesday. 800,000 of the 2.1 million officials face dismissal or a leave without pay.
Experts from around the world are trying to predict the market reaction to the bad news from the U.S. House of Representatives. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development does not anticipate sharp exchange rate fluctuations . Analyst of the "Alpari" official partner in Minsk Vadzim Iosub shares this opinion :
Vadzim Iosub: "From the point of view of the foreign exchange market, nothing extraordinary has happened. I am looking at the diagram of the euro against the dollar. After the news that the Democrats and Republicans did not agree, the euro rose from 1:35 to 1.3550 . A 50 points rise... You can see such fluctuations every day. If you look at this diagram and read the news about the tragedy of the budget in the United States – you will not see this in the diagram ."
According to the expert, no significant reaction to the budget crisis in the United States should be expected at the Belarusian market either. However, independent analyst Syarhei Chaly believes that the National Bank will take advantage of the situation in the United States to mask the slow weakening of the rouble:
Syarhei Chaly: "[ The budget crisis ] has already reflected in the dollar exchange rate . It begins to fall against other currencies . Also, considering the fact that our government targets the dollar as this is the currency the population looks at, it is a good excuse to weaken the currency basket. They will weaken the ruble without hurting the dollar. Here's what happened today: the euro jumped and the dollar remained unchanged."
On October 1, the euro increased by Br 80 thus updating the historical maximum. The rouble weakened against the currency basket by 0,34% at a time. However, the people who orientate on the dollar's rate haven't noticed anything: the American currency remained stable.
