Expert: We have not observed irreversible changes in Belarus yet
Despite some positive steps by the Belarusian authorities towards liberalization, analysts maintain these changes can be reversed at any moment. Belarus' foreign minister Siarhei Martynau is currently in Brussels, holding talks with the troika of the European Union. Closer ties between Europe and Belarus are becoming obvious. The European Radio for Belarus has compared what positive changes have taken place in this country during the current thaw and whether any rights are still violated.
The impression is that after the European Union announced a six-month trial period for the Belarusian authorities, the latter began improving at full speed.
On December 31, Andrei Vardamatski, the director of the Novak independent pollster and Yaraslau Ramanchuk, the director of the Strategy non-governmental think-tank and an opposition politician, were invited to join a government-sponsored working group to promote the foreign image of the country.
On January 16, Zhanna Litvina, the chairperson of the Belarusian Association of Journalists (BAJ), Joseph Siaredzich, the editor-in-chief of the opposition daily Narodnaya Volya and Alena Mironava, the editor of Komsomolskaya Pravda v Belarusi, were officially invited to join a public coordination council on the media.
The Office of the President is currently setting up a public consultative council on human rights. On January 26, an invitation to take part in the work of the council was sent to the Belarusian Helsinki Committee.
In an earlier development, Nasha Niva and Narodnaya Volya -- non-state newspapers -- had been allowed to return to the state-owned national distribution system. At the same time, Radio Racyja was denied accreditation. The Poland-based Belsat satellite TV channel is facing similar problems. Opposition activists, including students, still find themselves under pressure. The scandal about the forceful military draft of Franak Vyachorka, the chairman of the Belarusian Popular Front's youth wing, and Ivan Shyla, one of Malary Front leaders, is picking a new momentum.
Why are the authorities so inconsistent? What do these steps mean? Can they be trusted? What should one expect from the Belarus-EU relations? Politican analyst Yury Chavusau comments on these questions in an interview with the European Radio for Belarus.
Yury Chavusau: “The changes are taking place in Belarus, indeed. It would not be right to say that the Belarusian regime does not change and remains repressive. So far, these changes are definitely oportunistic. We have not observed any irreversible changes yet. For example, Article 193 in the Penal Code which sets envisages criminal prosecution for acting on behalf of unregistered organizations, has not been revoked.
However, these first steps are proof that there have been changes in the way the Belarusian regime runs the country. The above mentioned public commissions could play a certain role in the democratization of the society.
Yury Chavusau: “The invitation of high-profile figures from the civil society to the public councils and commissions is mainly a demonstration which aims to prove the changes in the way the Belarusian regime runs ths country. It is still premature to say that these commissions will bring about changes in the policy of the state”.
Yury Chavusau believes that Belarus is gradually drifting away from Russian dependance. He reckons this is a long-term trend. "We are now observing a process produced by the objective reality. Any government in Minsk will be forced to build relations with Europe. I'd say that the notorious Eastern roll in the early 1990s was a deviation. It was another voluntaristic element in Belarus' foreign policy, because Alexander Lukashenka had come to power under those slogans. But, today, he is a totally different kind of politician with a different political platform. I think this is a long-term trend", Chavusau reckons.
The impression is that after the European Union announced a six-month trial period for the Belarusian authorities, the latter began improving at full speed.
On December 31, Andrei Vardamatski, the director of the Novak independent pollster and Yaraslau Ramanchuk, the director of the Strategy non-governmental think-tank and an opposition politician, were invited to join a government-sponsored working group to promote the foreign image of the country.
On January 16, Zhanna Litvina, the chairperson of the Belarusian Association of Journalists (BAJ), Joseph Siaredzich, the editor-in-chief of the opposition daily Narodnaya Volya and Alena Mironava, the editor of Komsomolskaya Pravda v Belarusi, were officially invited to join a public coordination council on the media.
The Office of the President is currently setting up a public consultative council on human rights. On January 26, an invitation to take part in the work of the council was sent to the Belarusian Helsinki Committee.
In an earlier development, Nasha Niva and Narodnaya Volya -- non-state newspapers -- had been allowed to return to the state-owned national distribution system. At the same time, Radio Racyja was denied accreditation. The Poland-based Belsat satellite TV channel is facing similar problems. Opposition activists, including students, still find themselves under pressure. The scandal about the forceful military draft of Franak Vyachorka, the chairman of the Belarusian Popular Front's youth wing, and Ivan Shyla, one of Malary Front leaders, is picking a new momentum.
Why are the authorities so inconsistent? What do these steps mean? Can they be trusted? What should one expect from the Belarus-EU relations? Politican analyst Yury Chavusau comments on these questions in an interview with the European Radio for Belarus.
Yury Chavusau: “The changes are taking place in Belarus, indeed. It would not be right to say that the Belarusian regime does not change and remains repressive. So far, these changes are definitely oportunistic. We have not observed any irreversible changes yet. For example, Article 193 in the Penal Code which sets envisages criminal prosecution for acting on behalf of unregistered organizations, has not been revoked.
However, these first steps are proof that there have been changes in the way the Belarusian regime runs the country. The above mentioned public commissions could play a certain role in the democratization of the society.
Yury Chavusau: “The invitation of high-profile figures from the civil society to the public councils and commissions is mainly a demonstration which aims to prove the changes in the way the Belarusian regime runs ths country. It is still premature to say that these commissions will bring about changes in the policy of the state”.
Yury Chavusau believes that Belarus is gradually drifting away from Russian dependance. He reckons this is a long-term trend. "We are now observing a process produced by the objective reality. Any government in Minsk will be forced to build relations with Europe. I'd say that the notorious Eastern roll in the early 1990s was a deviation. It was another voluntaristic element in Belarus' foreign policy, because Alexander Lukashenka had come to power under those slogans. But, today, he is a totally different kind of politician with a different political platform. I think this is a long-term trend", Chavusau reckons.
