Will the attack on the Russian Embassy sharpen the relations between Minsk and Moscow even more?
Russian and Belarusian experts think that the incident in the Russian diplomatic mission is not an act of hooliganism, but a political action.
To the opinion of the former employee of the Belarusian KGB Valery Kostka,
it is highly unlikely that the attack on the Russian Embassy in Minsk
was committed by some Lukashenka's fans, aggravated by the movie
"Godfather". This could be, most likely, the work of either Belarusian
or Russian secret services, says he.
Kostka: “No one usually jokes with such actions, so the version that this was committed by the citizens, aggravated by the "Godfather', is almost unrealistic. A big game is played at the moment, and if we have a political game at the post-Soviet territory, like Russia and Belarus, then we'll definitely have special services involved, one way or another. If the case is connected with explosions, murders, snipers - the special services are 98-99% likely to stand behind it”.
Alongside with that, he reminded about the scandal with the Estonian diplomat and the detention of the Lithuanian policeman. All these cases, thinks Kostka, are clear signs that it is to someone's advantage now to spoil relationship between Belarus and the neighbouring countries. The fact that it is happening just before the elections shows there is no terrorism, no hooliganism - just clear politics. However, the expert did not clarify who could take advantage of the conflicts.
To the opinion of a political scientist Jury Shautsou, the fiery bottles could have been thrown by members of some Belarusian radical group.
Shautsou: “Not very long ago, when there were more or less notable demonstrations, there were people in the crowd who hid their faces but were capable of turning a car upside down or of throwing stones at the policemen. They were even proud that they had attended some militarized camps in Belarus or Ukraine. Who knows, what is now left of those people, but we cannot totally deny such version”.
However, Shautsou also admitted that the special services had been closely watching and, in the majority of cases, supervising such radical groups.
As for the version that this could be done by "radicals" from the Belarusian Republican Youth Union, made Shautsou laugh. However, a Russian political scientist Andrej Suzdaltsau disagreed with him on this point. To the question of the European Radio for Belarus "Who stands behid the attack on the Russian Embassy?", replied shortly" "Belarusian Republican Youth Union".
Suzdaltsau: “That's a clear provocation! I don't think nationally-oriented youth would do such a thing. They perfectly understand that today's exacerbation of relations between Minsk and Moscow is the result of the activity of Aliaksandr Lukashenka alone. If it was the deed of nationally-oriented youth, they would have helped Lukashenka. That is why I think that it was the "Belarusian Republican Youth Union". What was the input of Belarusian special services - they know better. We are not connected with special services and don't know how they work. However, I am hunded per cent convinced that it was made upon the order, it wasn't an independent action”.
According to the former Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Andrei Fedorov, this incident could either be an ordinary act of hooliganism, or a planned action of interested forces, both in Russia and Belarus.
Andrei Fedorov: “This could be both ordinary act of hooliganism committed by non-conscious citizens, or a much more serious thing - an attempt to start new informational and political contradiction. I would not exclude the possibility that there could be people interested in such development of the situation at both sides”.
Fedorov claims there will be additional difficulties in Russian-Belarusian relations further on because of this incident. The most unpleasant thing will be if Cremlin considers it to be a politically hostile step of Minsk. Then it will be impossible to predict further development of the situation.
Jury Shautsou has no doubts that the incident and it's meaning are being thought over.
Jury Shautsou: “Many people in Russia and in Belarus started thinking: what will happen next, if someone throws bottles at the Russian Embassy? There are only two ways out of catarsis - up or down. I am a pessimist so I am convinced our relations will change for the worse”.
Andrej Suzdaltsau is also convinced that the case will not be limited by just one protest note of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He says, it is worth to be prepared for "winter" in the relationship.
Moreover, Valery Kostka adds that if Russian special services stand behind the incident, then this action was just a final point of the informational war, after which there can be no peace anymore.
Let us remind you that the incident happened on August 30 at about 11 p.m. Unknown people threw two fiery bottles at the territory of the Russian Embassy. No one suffered, only the car Mazda 3 was put on fire. Surveillance cameras filmed the criminals. The attack was committed by 2 people. A criminal case has been initiated upon the fact of the attack. The Russian Embassy passed a note to the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs with regard to the incident.
Kostka: “No one usually jokes with such actions, so the version that this was committed by the citizens, aggravated by the "Godfather', is almost unrealistic. A big game is played at the moment, and if we have a political game at the post-Soviet territory, like Russia and Belarus, then we'll definitely have special services involved, one way or another. If the case is connected with explosions, murders, snipers - the special services are 98-99% likely to stand behind it”.
Alongside with that, he reminded about the scandal with the Estonian diplomat and the detention of the Lithuanian policeman. All these cases, thinks Kostka, are clear signs that it is to someone's advantage now to spoil relationship between Belarus and the neighbouring countries. The fact that it is happening just before the elections shows there is no terrorism, no hooliganism - just clear politics. However, the expert did not clarify who could take advantage of the conflicts.
To the opinion of a political scientist Jury Shautsou, the fiery bottles could have been thrown by members of some Belarusian radical group.
Shautsou: “Not very long ago, when there were more or less notable demonstrations, there were people in the crowd who hid their faces but were capable of turning a car upside down or of throwing stones at the policemen. They were even proud that they had attended some militarized camps in Belarus or Ukraine. Who knows, what is now left of those people, but we cannot totally deny such version”.
However, Shautsou also admitted that the special services had been closely watching and, in the majority of cases, supervising such radical groups.
As for the version that this could be done by "radicals" from the Belarusian Republican Youth Union, made Shautsou laugh. However, a Russian political scientist Andrej Suzdaltsau disagreed with him on this point. To the question of the European Radio for Belarus "Who stands behid the attack on the Russian Embassy?", replied shortly" "Belarusian Republican Youth Union".
Suzdaltsau: “That's a clear provocation! I don't think nationally-oriented youth would do such a thing. They perfectly understand that today's exacerbation of relations between Minsk and Moscow is the result of the activity of Aliaksandr Lukashenka alone. If it was the deed of nationally-oriented youth, they would have helped Lukashenka. That is why I think that it was the "Belarusian Republican Youth Union". What was the input of Belarusian special services - they know better. We are not connected with special services and don't know how they work. However, I am hunded per cent convinced that it was made upon the order, it wasn't an independent action”.
According to the former Vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Andrei Fedorov, this incident could either be an ordinary act of hooliganism, or a planned action of interested forces, both in Russia and Belarus.
Andrei Fedorov: “This could be both ordinary act of hooliganism committed by non-conscious citizens, or a much more serious thing - an attempt to start new informational and political contradiction. I would not exclude the possibility that there could be people interested in such development of the situation at both sides”.
Fedorov claims there will be additional difficulties in Russian-Belarusian relations further on because of this incident. The most unpleasant thing will be if Cremlin considers it to be a politically hostile step of Minsk. Then it will be impossible to predict further development of the situation.
Jury Shautsou has no doubts that the incident and it's meaning are being thought over.
Jury Shautsou: “Many people in Russia and in Belarus started thinking: what will happen next, if someone throws bottles at the Russian Embassy? There are only two ways out of catarsis - up or down. I am a pessimist so I am convinced our relations will change for the worse”.
Andrej Suzdaltsau is also convinced that the case will not be limited by just one protest note of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He says, it is worth to be prepared for "winter" in the relationship.
Moreover, Valery Kostka adds that if Russian special services stand behind the incident, then this action was just a final point of the informational war, after which there can be no peace anymore.
Let us remind you that the incident happened on August 30 at about 11 p.m. Unknown people threw two fiery bottles at the territory of the Russian Embassy. No one suffered, only the car Mazda 3 was put on fire. Surveillance cameras filmed the criminals. The attack was committed by 2 people. A criminal case has been initiated upon the fact of the attack. The Russian Embassy passed a note to the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs with regard to the incident.
