Belarus makes friends with Georgia to pump Iranian oil?
Ahead of the March 2006 presidential elections in Belarus, KGB pointed to some Georgian extremists who allegedly wanted to assist the local opposition to overthrow the government with the help of dead rats. The Belarusian authorities even wanted to introduce unilaterally a visa regime with Georgia. In respond, the Georgian government was set to ban Alexander Lukashenka from entering the Caucasian country.
Today, we are observing a surprise U-turn in bilateral relations. On September 17, Lukashenka said he had built good relationship with Georgia’s president Mikhail Saakashvili.
The meeting between the Belarusian president and the Georgian influential minister generated many versions of what could be behind this unexpected warmth. The European Radio for Belarus looks at the most incredible comment voiced by Roman Yakovlevsky, the coordinator of the WIDER EUROPE, a web-based international think tank project.
“The launch of the long-suffering oil pipeline Odessa-Brody-Plock, lobbied by Poland and Ukraine, can be possible not only with the help of Kazakh and Azeri oil but also with the help of the Iranian oil, however incredible it might sound. Ahmadinedjad’s friend Alexander Lukashenka could serve as a supplier of the Iranian oil to this pipe. All of this is based on the desire to lessen energy dependence on Russia. In fact, the pipeline project pursues this very aim,” Yakovlevsky suggests.
The commentator also reminds about the upcoming GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova) summit which is expected to focus on how to decrease energy dependence of these former Soviet states on Russia. Belarus is not invited, but would like very much to be represented, in the words of Yakovlevsky. If not Lukashenka of course, Belarus could send at least his close envoy. The surprising friendship with Georgia is assumed to help solve this issue.
The European Radio for Belarus has asked several politicians and economists to comment on a possible link between this friendship and Belarus oil interests.
Anatol Liabedzka, the leader of the United Civil Party who once had very close contacts with several officials from the Georgian government, says:
“As of now, I rule out a possibility of Georgia’s participation in any economic projects that could be of advantage to Belarus or Iran, even there is an opportunity to be friends against Russia. If I am to choose who poses the biggest threat to the US – Russia or Iran, Iran is definitely the one. I think the official Tbilisi will take this factor into account”.
Economist Leanid Zlotnikau does not believe in a Belarus-Georgia trans-Iranian oil alliance either.
“There are too many hurdles and it is very expensive. It would require a lot of money and political effort”.
He doesn’t see a worthy alternative to the Russian energy resources.
“In the next 5-10 years, there is almost no alternative. Just pay for this oil and you get it. There is no talk that Russia will play any political games while supplying its oil and gas,” Zlotnikau says.
Roman Yakovlevsky notes that what is incredible yesterday often becomes a reality today. Even if Belarus is not to participate in this oil project, the meeting between Lukashenka and Georgia’s interior minister and the agreements reached are definitely to upset Vladimir Putin at the CIS summit in Dushanbe on October 5.
Photo: naviny.by
