Medvedev expected Lukashenka with an unofficial visit last week
Former Russia's deputy foreign minister Andrei Fyodorov talks to the European Radio for Belarus to explain why Lukashenka did not go to see Medvedev last week; why the Kremlin did not call off the screening of Godfather-3 and why it is dangerous if Lukashenka decides to ignore the summit meeting in Yerevan. Euroradio: Exactly three weeks ago, you told our radio that Lukashenka would pay an an official visit to Moscow within two or three weeks in order to sort all the disputes between two our countries out. Three weeks have passed, but the visit has not taken place…
Andrei Fyodorov: Anyway, it still remains on agenda, because all the difficulties do not remove a need to interact on a large number of issues. Now, the situation has become more acute, and it is very important which next step will be made by either of the sides. I don't rule out that Alexander Lukashenka will refuse to go to Yerevan. Taking into account a new situation in relations between our countries and taking into account that Kyrgyzstan will be discussed there, it will be a difficult issue for Lukashenka. That's why I still reckon a bilateral meeting outside the Collective Security Treaty Organization would be the best option.
Euroradio: Can one forecast such a meeting? Last time, you were confident in your forecasts.
Andrei Fyodorov: Yes, the meeting was planned. I even knew the date. Unfortunately, the date passed several days ago. The plan was that Alexander Lukashenka might have appeared in the Russian Federation. But, things developed according to another option, which is very complex and contentious. The situation is very acute, indeed.
Euroradio: In your view, what was behind this change of plans?
Andrei Fyodorov: All this controversy in the media is also part of it. Softly speaking, Alexander Lukashenka was not happy with the information attack on him. His bottom-line is: "I am Russia's best friend, and you are bullying me!?" At this stage, this is a psychological issue, in the first place -- not a political issue, yet. Alexander Lukashenka got a feeling he was betrayed in Russia. So, he decided to change his plans.
Euroradio: It was not hard to predict such a reaction of the Belarusian leader. Why did the Kremlin not call off Godfather-3 after having made several information shots?
Andrei Fyodorov: Quite frankly, I can't finally understand it, either. Perhaps, some people in Russia reckon that the maximum harshness should be displayed now in order to show that someone in Russia would like to see another result in 2011. But, I think that everything that is happening now is a very risky situation. Knowing Alexander Lukashenka a little, I can assume he will respond quite harshly in the near future. He will respond with actions, not words. For instance, certain problems with the transit of cargo to Kaliningrad could be created. There are always many options, but the leaders did not use to resort to them before as they understood the consequences.
Euroradio: Last time, you said categorically that there would be no Kremlin-backed candidate during the presidential elections in Belarus. Perhaps, the situation has changed?
Andrei Fyodorov: There is no such candidate, indeed. Frankly speaking, if there were such a candidate, he would have faced such huge difficulties that he would not wish to be a candidate further on! I reckon this information attack on Lukashenka aims to undermine him psychologically and to force him talk a more realistic and quiet language to Russia. Everyone understands it will be very difficult to Belarus without a respectful dialogue with Russia.
Euroradio: Do you think that the Godfather-3 film can force such an excitable man like Alexander Lukashenka talk quietly to Russia?
Andrei Fyodorov: With all his temper, Alexander Lukashenka can often pull himself together. He can keep quiet without showing his reaction. I don't think he will comment on Godfather-3 screened yesterday. He will draw conclusions. It is considered a weakness in politics to show your emotions. He can't afford now to be weak in the eyes of the Belarusian people and within his own information field. If he displays weakness, it will be later reproduced on many events.
Euroradio: Many people are saying now that Belarus will save Russia with milk powder and possibly grains.
Andrei Fyodorov: The share of the Belarusian milk powder in the Russian market is very serious. If, suddenly, Belarus does not supply milk here, problems could arise in the Russian market. On the other hand, where else but Russia? Belarus does not have other markets. It is a large web of political and economic issues, which, in my view, makes a meeting between the two leaders inevitable Lukashenka is not Saakashvili with whom Medvedev will never meet under any circumstances -- official or unofficial. Alexander Lukashenka is the president of the country which is very near and which is a member of the Customs Union. The stakes are very high. I think emotions will calm down within several days. In the present situation, the CSTO summit will play a decisive role. If Lukashenka arrives in Yerevan and sits at the same table with Medvedev, he can approach him and talk tête-à-tête. Actually, I don't rule it out. If he doesn't go to Yerevan and ignores the summit, the degree of tension between our countries can increase drastically. If he finds a political will to come and use the CSTO's tribune in order to express his point of view, things might unfold in another way.
Euroradio: Can our countries end up severing diplomatic ties?
Andrei Fyodorov: This will not happen. There are economic factors, which are more important that all political dialogues. It is not beneficial either Russia or Belarus to sever diplomatic ties. Although harsh statements and political demarches are possible, one should remember realities. I witnessed a story a couple of years ago, when there were difficulties between our countries. One of high-ranking officials said then: "We are under pressure. But, what happens when we start clearing the Russia-bound cargo, according to all the procedures -- slowly and quietly? How is Moscow going to be supplied? Such attitudes took place some time ago, and they could return. It would be the worst option. Whether we want it or not, the transit of foodstuffs takes place via Belarus. I disagree with what was sad in Godfather-3 that Russian transporters try to bypass Belarus. The transit via Ukraine is even worse. The transit via Finland is not a present, either. The transit via Belarus is the shortest, easiest and the most profitable way of taking cargo to Moscow and central Russia. I would not us ending up in an economic war.
Euroradio: Can one rule out such a development?
Andrei Fyodorov: No, we can't. I totally rule out an option when diplomatic ties are severed. But, I can't rule out an option when the Belarusian side can resort to certain diplomatic measures, which will demonstrate Russia's dependence on the transit of goods via Belarus.
Photo: Zmitser Lukashuk
Andrei Fyodorov: Anyway, it still remains on agenda, because all the difficulties do not remove a need to interact on a large number of issues. Now, the situation has become more acute, and it is very important which next step will be made by either of the sides. I don't rule out that Alexander Lukashenka will refuse to go to Yerevan. Taking into account a new situation in relations between our countries and taking into account that Kyrgyzstan will be discussed there, it will be a difficult issue for Lukashenka. That's why I still reckon a bilateral meeting outside the Collective Security Treaty Organization would be the best option.
Euroradio: Can one forecast such a meeting? Last time, you were confident in your forecasts.
Andrei Fyodorov: Yes, the meeting was planned. I even knew the date. Unfortunately, the date passed several days ago. The plan was that Alexander Lukashenka might have appeared in the Russian Federation. But, things developed according to another option, which is very complex and contentious. The situation is very acute, indeed.
Euroradio: In your view, what was behind this change of plans?
Andrei Fyodorov: All this controversy in the media is also part of it. Softly speaking, Alexander Lukashenka was not happy with the information attack on him. His bottom-line is: "I am Russia's best friend, and you are bullying me!?" At this stage, this is a psychological issue, in the first place -- not a political issue, yet. Alexander Lukashenka got a feeling he was betrayed in Russia. So, he decided to change his plans.
Euroradio: It was not hard to predict such a reaction of the Belarusian leader. Why did the Kremlin not call off Godfather-3 after having made several information shots?
Andrei Fyodorov: Quite frankly, I can't finally understand it, either. Perhaps, some people in Russia reckon that the maximum harshness should be displayed now in order to show that someone in Russia would like to see another result in 2011. But, I think that everything that is happening now is a very risky situation. Knowing Alexander Lukashenka a little, I can assume he will respond quite harshly in the near future. He will respond with actions, not words. For instance, certain problems with the transit of cargo to Kaliningrad could be created. There are always many options, but the leaders did not use to resort to them before as they understood the consequences.
Euroradio: Last time, you said categorically that there would be no Kremlin-backed candidate during the presidential elections in Belarus. Perhaps, the situation has changed?
Andrei Fyodorov: There is no such candidate, indeed. Frankly speaking, if there were such a candidate, he would have faced such huge difficulties that he would not wish to be a candidate further on! I reckon this information attack on Lukashenka aims to undermine him psychologically and to force him talk a more realistic and quiet language to Russia. Everyone understands it will be very difficult to Belarus without a respectful dialogue with Russia.
Euroradio: Do you think that the Godfather-3 film can force such an excitable man like Alexander Lukashenka talk quietly to Russia?
Andrei Fyodorov: With all his temper, Alexander Lukashenka can often pull himself together. He can keep quiet without showing his reaction. I don't think he will comment on Godfather-3 screened yesterday. He will draw conclusions. It is considered a weakness in politics to show your emotions. He can't afford now to be weak in the eyes of the Belarusian people and within his own information field. If he displays weakness, it will be later reproduced on many events.
Euroradio: Many people are saying now that Belarus will save Russia with milk powder and possibly grains.
Andrei Fyodorov: The share of the Belarusian milk powder in the Russian market is very serious. If, suddenly, Belarus does not supply milk here, problems could arise in the Russian market. On the other hand, where else but Russia? Belarus does not have other markets. It is a large web of political and economic issues, which, in my view, makes a meeting between the two leaders inevitable Lukashenka is not Saakashvili with whom Medvedev will never meet under any circumstances -- official or unofficial. Alexander Lukashenka is the president of the country which is very near and which is a member of the Customs Union. The stakes are very high. I think emotions will calm down within several days. In the present situation, the CSTO summit will play a decisive role. If Lukashenka arrives in Yerevan and sits at the same table with Medvedev, he can approach him and talk tête-à-tête. Actually, I don't rule it out. If he doesn't go to Yerevan and ignores the summit, the degree of tension between our countries can increase drastically. If he finds a political will to come and use the CSTO's tribune in order to express his point of view, things might unfold in another way.
Euroradio: Can our countries end up severing diplomatic ties?
Andrei Fyodorov: This will not happen. There are economic factors, which are more important that all political dialogues. It is not beneficial either Russia or Belarus to sever diplomatic ties. Although harsh statements and political demarches are possible, one should remember realities. I witnessed a story a couple of years ago, when there were difficulties between our countries. One of high-ranking officials said then: "We are under pressure. But, what happens when we start clearing the Russia-bound cargo, according to all the procedures -- slowly and quietly? How is Moscow going to be supplied? Such attitudes took place some time ago, and they could return. It would be the worst option. Whether we want it or not, the transit of foodstuffs takes place via Belarus. I disagree with what was sad in Godfather-3 that Russian transporters try to bypass Belarus. The transit via Ukraine is even worse. The transit via Finland is not a present, either. The transit via Belarus is the shortest, easiest and the most profitable way of taking cargo to Moscow and central Russia. I would not us ending up in an economic war.
Euroradio: Can one rule out such a development?
Andrei Fyodorov: No, we can't. I totally rule out an option when diplomatic ties are severed. But, I can't rule out an option when the Belarusian side can resort to certain diplomatic measures, which will demonstrate Russia's dependence on the transit of goods via Belarus.
Photo: Zmitser Lukashuk
