Who is winning and losing in Belarus-US diplomatic row?
In the view of Roman Yakovlevsky, an international relations expert, the US ambassador left this country under threat that she could be declared persona non grata. Karen Stewart was given an ultimatum which she had to meet within 24 hours. 17 diplomatic staff left Belarus only because Washington did not want to escalate the rift in relations with Minsk. The Vienna Convention is not the reason.
“One should not put it this way that Americans are making a step forward by meeting the Vienna Convention. When the Belarusian side refers to the Vienna Convention, the American side does not think that there should be some parity in the number of embassy staff. This depends on the material resources available to maintain the required number of staff. The same applies to Belarus. The number of Belarusian diplomats in Washington will depend on the material resources of Lukashenka. Everything must meet the interests of the country”.
In his view, the demarche of the official Minsk is caused only by the sanctions against Belneftekhim oil monopoly.
“The sanctions against Belneftekhim indeed affect the resource base of the ruling regime in Belarus”.
Yakovlevsky maintains that the “diplomatic war” between Minsk and Washington has nothing in common with the bargaining for imprisoned Alexander Kozulin.
“After yesterday’s events in Minsk, I would not say anything about some bargaining. As for the American side, they have clear demands voiced earlier. But it turned out that some secret negotiations had taken place, and Minsk did not fulfill certain promises”.
In his view, only the Belarusian side can stop this diplomatic conflict. It is Belarus that has to reduce the tension degree.
Piotr Martsev, the editor-in-chief of the Belorusskaya Delovaya Gazeta, believes that Minsk’s lead in the confrontation with Washington is formal. It brings nothing but harm to Belarus.
“The demands of our foreign ministry are not of fantastic nature. They emanate from the level of official relations that we have with the US. They are formal enough and do not do significant harm to the United States. On the contrary, US’s slight moves to freeze Belneftekhim’s accounts do a much greater harm. Therefore, Belarus’s lead in this diplomatic conflict is formal”.
Martsev describes everything that is taking place between Minsk and Washington as a “tough diplomatic dialogue”. If the dialogue remains tough, the Belarusian authorities will not free Kozulin.
“I think that politics is the main cause of the conflict. The US demands democratization (in their understanding) of the Belarusian regime. Belarus is not meeting those demands and eventually ends up facing sanctions. Thus, it is very difficult to agree on anything. In this sense, Kozulin will become a hostage. When the US keeps pressing, he will remain in jail”.
In the view of Martsev, the situation should be resolved through negotiations. This conflict is of no advantage to Belarus in the long-term perspective; even it solves today some tactical tasks of the Belarusian authorities.
Belarus’s former deputy foreign minister Andrei Sannikov tells the European Radio for Belarus that the departure of Karen Stewart “for consultations” and the reduction of the US embassy staff in Minsk are the signs of Washington’s good will in relations with Minsk.
“The Vienna Convention does not regulate these issues. It stipulates the principle of parity, but such a big nation like the United States can afford more diplomats than incomparably smaller Belarus”.
Sannikov says Washington introduced economic sanctions, because Minsk did not fulfill its political promises.
“The Belarusian side was warned that it might happen, because there were certain promises from Minsk, regarding the political prisoners and Kozulin in the first place. They were not fulfilled. The Belarusian side did not believe that it would happen this way. When it happened, Minsk reacted hysterically. But this is not bargaining for Kozulin. He became the cause of the conflict, but there is no bargaining here’.
All of three commentators agreed that the conflict can be stopped when nervous passions calm down in Minsk. The United States will not back off from their stance. In this sense, that fact that US met Belarus’s diplomatic demands means nothing. At the end of the day, Belarus is losing more than US in this “diplomatic war”.
Photo: photo.bymedia.net
