Expert: Russia will win 'gas war' only after Lukashenka steps down
But there is no political force in Russia that could organize it, reckons Dmitry Butrin, the chief economic commentator at the Russian business daily Kommersant. Euroradio: What is your forecast for the near future?
Dmitry Butrin: I think the transit of Russian gas via Ukraine will be increased sharply in the next several days. As far as I know there are technical agreements with Ukraine in this regard. European consumer will get gas deliveries from Gazprom's underground reserves avoiding Belarus. Belarus will see gas taps closed completely.
E: Can Gazprom end up in a court battle with Belarus after Lukashenka's statement on haulting the gas transit?
DB: It does not make sense for several reasons. First of all, courts on the territory of Russia and Belarus will act in an opposite and the same way at the same time. I can't imagine a Russian court that could refuse to Gazprom in a legal action against Belarus. At the same time, no Belarusian court will reckognize that the actions of the Belarusian government are illegal.
Legally, the situation is a complate impasse, because Belarus remains an independent state when becoming a meber of the Union State and after declaring its intention to join the customs union. In other words, Russia will be unable to sue Belarus.
E: But there is the CIS Commercial Court where Belarus filed a lawsuit against Russia over export duties on crude oil. It means that there is a international legal field for settling such issues.
DB: In my view, this court is an incapable arbitration. It has neither experience nor mechanism to enforce its rulings. I can't understand what one could expect from the CIS Commercial Court.
E: Moreover, the term for court proceedings excludes a possibility of settling the issues between Russia and Belarus in court.
DB: Alexander Lukashenka demonstrated numerously that he likes playing sharp games, He is able to win in sharp situations, but he gets defeated in a long-term perspective. Belarus is currently compicating the situation deliberately in order to gain the most. Russia, on the contrary, is trying to delay the situation. This is of advantage to Russia, because longtermly it will win this game.
And we have a wonderful date of July 1. We will either restore the customs border or not.
E: Will the 'gas war' escalate closer to this date?
DB: It does not make sense. And the timing is right. If we look at a calendar year, June is not the best for a gas blackmail.
I think that Russia's next step will be to shut crude oil deliveries to Belarus. It will create more problems for the authorities in Belarus than any other measure, because oil refinerires will stop making money and will not be able to employ workers.
E: But in this icase Belarus has Venezuela as a strategic partner!
DM: Weу are very well aware that endless ships with Venezuelan crude have not arrived anywhere yet. We also understand very well that the hault of petrochemical giants like the refineries in Mozyr and Novopolotsk will create a huge social tension. Different from the gas blockade which can last through the late autumn, a couple of months of the oil blockade will be much more tangible.
Especially, when the customs border is restored and petrochemical products will not cross this border.
E: Is Russia capable of such a stringent scenario?
DM: I think that everything will become clear by July 1. The situation will be resolved in such manner that Lukashenka does not count on.
We have played this game for a long time. The resignation of Alexander Lukashenka is the only way for Russia to win this game. It will be a long-term victory. But I think that no political force in Russia can currently organize it.
Photo: Kommersant
Dmitry Butrin: I think the transit of Russian gas via Ukraine will be increased sharply in the next several days. As far as I know there are technical agreements with Ukraine in this regard. European consumer will get gas deliveries from Gazprom's underground reserves avoiding Belarus. Belarus will see gas taps closed completely.
E: Can Gazprom end up in a court battle with Belarus after Lukashenka's statement on haulting the gas transit?
DB: It does not make sense for several reasons. First of all, courts on the territory of Russia and Belarus will act in an opposite and the same way at the same time. I can't imagine a Russian court that could refuse to Gazprom in a legal action against Belarus. At the same time, no Belarusian court will reckognize that the actions of the Belarusian government are illegal.
Legally, the situation is a complate impasse, because Belarus remains an independent state when becoming a meber of the Union State and after declaring its intention to join the customs union. In other words, Russia will be unable to sue Belarus.
E: But there is the CIS Commercial Court where Belarus filed a lawsuit against Russia over export duties on crude oil. It means that there is a international legal field for settling such issues.
DB: In my view, this court is an incapable arbitration. It has neither experience nor mechanism to enforce its rulings. I can't understand what one could expect from the CIS Commercial Court.
E: Moreover, the term for court proceedings excludes a possibility of settling the issues between Russia and Belarus in court.
DB: Alexander Lukashenka demonstrated numerously that he likes playing sharp games, He is able to win in sharp situations, but he gets defeated in a long-term perspective. Belarus is currently compicating the situation deliberately in order to gain the most. Russia, on the contrary, is trying to delay the situation. This is of advantage to Russia, because longtermly it will win this game.
And we have a wonderful date of July 1. We will either restore the customs border or not.
E: Will the 'gas war' escalate closer to this date?
DB: It does not make sense. And the timing is right. If we look at a calendar year, June is not the best for a gas blackmail.
I think that Russia's next step will be to shut crude oil deliveries to Belarus. It will create more problems for the authorities in Belarus than any other measure, because oil refinerires will stop making money and will not be able to employ workers.
E: But in this icase Belarus has Venezuela as a strategic partner!
DM: Weу are very well aware that endless ships with Venezuelan crude have not arrived anywhere yet. We also understand very well that the hault of petrochemical giants like the refineries in Mozyr and Novopolotsk will create a huge social tension. Different from the gas blockade which can last through the late autumn, a couple of months of the oil blockade will be much more tangible.
Especially, when the customs border is restored and petrochemical products will not cross this border.
E: Is Russia capable of such a stringent scenario?
DM: I think that everything will become clear by July 1. The situation will be resolved in such manner that Lukashenka does not count on.
We have played this game for a long time. The resignation of Alexander Lukashenka is the only way for Russia to win this game. It will be a long-term victory. But I think that no political force in Russia can currently organize it.
Photo: Kommersant
