Expert: Vilnius and Minsk to engage in active 'backstage diplomacy'
With the government change in Lithuania and a new coalition in Ukraine's parliament, what will relations with Belarus look like now?
After the left-center party claims victory at parliamentary elections in Lithuania, the new prime minister and foreign minister will appointed by the Social Democratic party. How will this impact the relations between our countries?
Political analyst Gintautas Mazeikis from Kaunas University recalls that Social Democrats, Labor Party and the Order and Justice party - all of them - made numerous statements about their intention to fix relations with Russia, Poland and Belarus after winning the election. In fact, they would never go into a detail about their concrete actions with regard to Belarus. But given the "hidden sympathies" of the leftist parties in Lithuania for the Belarusian authorities, some steps could be made to repair the relations.
Gintautas Mazeikis: “Nothing will change in relations between the two presidents — given the stance of the European Union (Lithuania as a EU member state must stick to the EU position with regard to Belarus - Euroradio). In relations between the parliaments, there could be more unofficial contacts. Relations can improve in economic, cultural, educational fields, on visa issues, if the Belarusian side doesn't resist to”.
Gintautas Mazeikis
Mazeikis reckons this should not be ruled out, because the new Lithuanian foreign minister, currently Lithuania's Counsul General in Belarus, Linas Linkevicius will continue to support the Belarusian opposition - based in Vilnius - in order to keep a bargaining chip! The official Minsk is unlikely to enjoy this support.
Gintautas Mazeikis: “It seems this will be the time of active 'backstage diplomacy' with the second or third power echelon of power of Lukashenka's regime. In this regard, it is a good bargaining chip in talks to have the Belarusian opposition on Lithuanian soil".
Linas Linkevicius
Nevertheless, attempts by the new government to build economic relations with Russian would automatically bring about the improvement in relations with other members of the Customs Union - Kazakhstan and Belarus, reckons Mazeikis.
Egidius Vareikis, Lithuania's representative in PACE, says the Lithuanian parliament will continue supporting the Belarusian opposition regardless of who - the ruling or opposition party - will initiate such support. Of course, the support will not be as obvious as in the previous years.
Egidius Vareikis
In Ukraine, the government will not change after the parliamentary election. However, there will be a new parliament coalition formed by Fatherland, Liberty and boxer Vitak Klichko's Strike party. But this will not produce any impact on relations between the two countries, reckons political analyst Vitali Portnikov.
Vitali Portnikov: “I wouldn't rush to say there will be a pro-democracy majority in the parliament. The data published by the Central Election Commission differs from the exit-poll stats. Together with majoritarian members of parliament, Party of Regions can claim majority in the Supreme Rada to form a government that will be loyal to President Victor Yanukovich and entourage. After all, our parliament does not play any significant role in Ukraine's foreign policy”.
Vitali Portnikov
Ukraine's foreign policy vector depends exclusively on President Yanukovich who remains in power. So, official Minsk may try to seek new opportunities only in Lithuania where the victory of the left offers opportunities for games with the European Union and attempts to pursue a foreign policy independent from the Kremlin.
Photo: Zmicier Lukashuk, http://www.svaboda.org/, bernardinai.lt
