Pavel Usau: There's no hope for a new political thaw

Pavel Usau is convinced that nothing unusual happened to Aliaksandr Lukashenka, it's his normal rhetoric which he used before. He said it many times that all the problems in relations with the West happen due to the opposition's activity, but these relations on the whole are very good. 

Nevertheless, the West demands democratization of Belarus and release of all political prisoners.

It is known that the U.S. President Barack Obama is to fly to Warsaw on May 27. He will take part in the summit of countries of Eastern and Southern Europe, during which it is planned to discuss situations in Northern Africa and in Belarus. Will Lukashenka feel ill at ease, the U.S. President being so close?

“I don't think Lukashenka will feel uncomfortable when Obama is so close to Belarus, in Warsaw. This visit is not a symbolic one for Lukashenka, as Belarus is behind Russia. Therefore, this will not change the policy of the U.S. and the European Union. In fact, there is no policy, just sanctions and declarations”, — Pavel Usau comments. 

However, the political scientist is convinced that the Belarusian leader will start trading political prisoners soon. 

“There will be a trade on political prisoners, 100%. It will start after everyone is convicted. As it is essential for the regime that the sentences should be logical. And the logics is to intimidate the opposition and the society to the maximum extent. This trade will last for a long time and he will ask high prices for the prisoners, especially for the ex-presidential candidates: Sannikau, Statkevich, Us. If Europe provides credit for development of the economy, prisoners will be released very soon, but that doesn't mean the whole political situation in Belarus will improve. There's no hope for a new political thaw”.