Yaraslau Ramanchuk: “D-word” has been said

Economist Yaralsau Ramanchuk has written a huge article about devaluation in his blog. Euroradio has decided to ask the expert whether it is necessary to expect devaluation in the near future.

Ramanchuk: "The first thesis: devaluation in Belarus is both a political and psychological event. The second thesis: of course, there are a lot of financial and economic reasons for devaluation. The numbers we are getting from the National Bank have been confirmed by the International Monetary Fund. Kudrin also said that Belarus could do something to avoid a default but “the D-word” was pronounced. And the last thing: the authorities are simply contradicting everything instead of trying to set up a professional dialogue with foreign experts and the international community to say that we are that stable”.

In Ramanchuk’s opinion, the authorities are boosting the pressure by introducing the National Bank’s bans in the foreign exchange market which is considered to be a bad policy even in Russia. There are reasons for devaluation but not for panic, says the economist. Anyway, everything depends on only one person.

Ramanchuk: "The decision will be taken by one person and it will be neither Prakapovich nor Myasnikovich. I think, if there were a meeting dedicated to the future of the Belarusian ruble, there would be Prakapovich’s report (the National Bank), the Council of Ministers’ report and reports made by, say, KGB and the Security Council. They would say: “No! People may react to it withdrawing their deposits from banks. Do not do it”.
Ramanchuk assures that state experts know about the instability of the financial situation. However, they hope that Lukashenka will persuade Putin into allocating 6 billion dollars at first and 3 billions more later which will help us last for the next 6 months.

The expert has given a very critical account of the National Bank’s actions. Ramanchuk calls the structure “the main devaluation generator” and reminds that the National Bank has taken a lot of credits in foreign currency abroad and in Belarusian commercial banks.

Ramanchuk: "That is why it is artificially decreasing the demand for foreign currency now and is not going to do anything about the ruble. What happens in the market when there is a surplus of some goods (our ruble) and a deficit of others (foreign currency)? Of course, the price has to change! The cost of the Belarusian ruble should be much bigger than today (3.85 – 3.100). I have been to the Kamarouka Market today and I saw speculators in foreign currency near foreign currency exchange offices there. This is the first sign that the situation in the foreign exchange market is about to change”.

He compares the limitation imposed on foreign currency purchase to food coupons that existed in the 1990s. At the same time, he cannot predict when the devaluation is going to hit and what the percent will be. Ramanchuk says that many factors affect it.